Avalerion Intelligence · Edition 021
Tuesday 27 October 2026 · AI, Data & Enterprise Transformation for the Nordics, UK & Ireland
Apollo: zero AI payoff outside tech, so far
This week at a glance
| Move | Who | Why it matters to you |
|---|---|---|
| "Zero financial payoff" from AI outside tech; margins and revenue per worker flat for the S&P 493 | Apollo (24 October) | Boards will start asking for the number, not the pilot count |
| Frontier models and Codex coming to Google Cloud, payable from existing Google Cloud commitments | OpenAI (21 October) | Model choice is separating from cloud choice |
| 68 percent call themselves AI-mature; only 7 percent have classified and cleaned most of their file data | Komprise survey (19 October) | The gap between AI ambition and AI-ready data is measurable |
| More than 70 percent of staff use AI daily; no AI savings figure disclosed | Telia (22 October) | Adoption is not the same thing as a result |
| Net sales to AI and cloud customers up 123 percent, EUR 1.5 billion in new orders | Nokia (22 October) | A Nordic supplier is being paid by the AI build-out |
1. Top AI News
OpenAI is coming to Google's cloud.
What happened. On 21 October OpenAI said its frontier models and its Codex coding agent are coming to Google Cloud. Customers will buy through Google Cloud Marketplace and can apply eligible Google Cloud spending commitments to the bill. Access is an invite-only preview for now, with general availability promised in the coming weeks and no date given.
Why it matters. The most widely used model family is no longer tied to one cloud. If you are on Google Cloud, you can now put OpenAI and Gemini side by side and pay from a commitment you already hold.
What to do. Check which cloud commitments you have that are not yet spent, and make model choice a separate decision in your 2027 architecture, not a by-product of your hosting contract.
2. Enterprise AI Trend: the payoff is still at the vendors
An economist asks where the return went.
What happened. In his Daily Spark note of 24 October, Apollo's Torsten Slok compared the seven largest US tech companies with the other 493 in the S&P 500. Revenue per worker is rising for the seven and flat for the 493. Profit margins show the same pattern. His conclusion: the AI story "will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7." Economist Brad DeLong agreed the gains are not yet visible in revenue or margins, but argued that much of the value flows to users, where shareholders cannot easily capture it.
Why it matters. This is aggregate US data, not a verdict on any single programme. But it is the argument your CFO will read. Pilots, licences and usage numbers will not answer it. A changed number in the P&L will.
What to do. For every AI initiative in the 2027 plan, write down the metric it moves, its baseline today and who owns it. Pause anything that cannot fill in all three.
3. Data & AI Readiness: maturity on paper, not in the data
Most companies say they are ready. Their files say otherwise.
What happened. A Komprise survey of enterprise technology leaders, reported on 19 October, found that 68 percent describe their organisation as mature or maturing on AI. Only 7 percent have classified and cleaned most of their file data, 57 percent say half or less of their data is ready, and 13 percent cannot say. Only 21 to 26 percent have quantified a return in operations or revenue growth.
Why it matters. This is the Apollo finding seen from inside the company. AI built on data nobody has sorted produces answers nobody trusts, and no return anyone can measure.
What to do. Pick the one data domain your highest-value AI use case depends on, and measure how much of it is classified, owned and current. Start there, not with the model.
4. Business Process Spotlight: adoption is not a result
A Nordic operator reports usage, not savings.
What happened. In its interim report of 22 October, Telia said more than 70 percent of its workforce now use AI in their daily work, and that an AI customer service assistant is already shortening response times. It raised its 2026 outlook for adjusted EBITDA growth to 3 to 4 percent and for free cash flow to at least SEK 9 billion. It did not put a figure on what AI saves.
Why it matters. This is honest reporting, and it is the norm. Usage is easy to count. The money is in the process the assistant sits in: fewer repeat contacts, shorter handling times, higher retention.
What to do. Take your most-used AI tool and tie it to one process metric, such as handling time, first-contact resolution or time to quote. Report that, not the share of staff who logged in.
5. Nordic Technology: Nokia sells to the build-out
AI orders more than double at the Finnish supplier.
What happened. On 22 October Nokia reported that net sales to AI and cloud customers grew 123 percent in the third quarter, to EUR 631 million, with order intake up 118 percent and EUR 1.5 billion in new orders. Chief executive Justin Hotard pointed to demand for AI infrastructure that is "larger, more distributed and hyperconnected." Free cash flow for the quarter was negative EUR 99 million.
Why it matters. Apollo's point in miniature: the companies building AI's plumbing are being paid now. A Nordic champion is on that side of the ledger, and network capacity for AI is getting harder to buy.
What to do. If 2027 plans assume more AI traffic between sites or clouds, ask your network suppliers about lead times now.
Join us in Stockholm
Thursday 5 November 2026, 12:00 to 13:30, Klarabergsviadukten 63, 111 64 Stockholm. Free.
A working lunch with your laptop open: you build a real lifecycle flow in Customer.io, guided by our team and Customer.io's, and leave with it working in your own environment. Not a demo, not a panel. Seats are kept small.
Do this next. Thirty minutes with us: which AI initiatives in your 2027 plan have a metric, a baseline and an owner, and which data each one depends on. No pitch, no deck.
Recommended reading: What AI readiness actually means for Nordic companies and Why most enterprise AI projects still fail, at avalerions.com/insights
Frequently asked questions
What did Apollo's Torsten Slok say about AI's payoff in October 2026?
In a Daily Spark note dated 24 October 2026, Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok wrote that AI has delivered "zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech." Revenue per worker and profit margins are rising for the seven largest US tech companies and flat for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500.
Can companies buy OpenAI models through Google Cloud?
On 21 October 2026 OpenAI said its frontier models and Codex are coming to Google Cloud, bought through Google Cloud Marketplace, with eligible Google Cloud spending commitments applying. Access started as an invite-only preview, with general availability expected in the following weeks.
What did Nokia report for AI and cloud customers in Q3 2026?
On 22 October 2026 Nokia reported that net sales to AI and cloud customers grew 123 percent to EUR 631 million, order intake grew 118 percent, and it secured EUR 1.5 billion in new orders.
How ready is enterprise data for AI, according to Komprise?
Komprise's survey, reported on 19 October 2026, found that 68 percent of organisations call themselves mature or maturing on AI, but only 7 percent have classified and cleaned most of their file data, and only 21 to 26 percent have quantified a return in operations or revenue growth.
Sources
- Apollo, Daily Spark, "No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector", 24 October 2026: apollo.com
- Bloomberg, "AI Provides 'Zero Payoff' to S&P 493 Outside Tech, Apollo Economist Says", 25 October 2026: bloomberg.com
- Implicator, "Apollo Economist Finds Zero AI Payoff Outside Big Tech" (DeLong response), October 2026: implicator.ai
- OpenAI on Google Cloud (request access, preview terms): openai.com
- AlphaSignal, "OpenAI Brings Codex and Frontier Models to Google Cloud", 21 October 2026: alphasignal.ai
- Blocks & Files, "Komprise: AI needs AI-ready data and there isn't enough of it", 19 October 2026: blocksandfiles.com
- Telia Company, Interim Report January to September 2026, 22 October 2026: news.cision.com
- Nokia, Q3 2026 interim report (Form 6-K), 22 October 2026: sec.gov
- Event page (re-checked 26 October 2026): avalerions.com
Avalerion Intelligence is published weekly by Avalerion Consulting AB for technology leaders in the Nordics, UK and Ireland. Subscribe by email